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This Half Year -- By: Bill Kraft
Copyright 2009, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
Bill Kraft
Editor |
As far as I am concerned, it is definitely true that the older you
get the faster time seems to pass. I just looked at the calendar and
suddenly realized that 2009 is almost half gone. That observation gave
me pause to look back on the year so far. It has been quite a year for
trading. The Dow 30 Industrials fell almost 2600 points from the first
of the year until the March low and then climbed back just over 2400
points to the highs in the first third of this month. Similar violent
action occurred on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. The S&P fell
from a January high of 943.85 to a March low of 666.79 only to rebound
to a new high of 956.23 on June 11th. Though volatility as measured by
the VIX failed to attain the all time heights achieved in late 2008,
they remained uncharacteristically high as the markets fell to the March
lows. In short, this year has seen a pretty wild market; one that
resulted in very substantial losses for many from January to March.
During that descent, I attempted to trade very cautiously, only to
become more aggressive during the run-up. Most recently I pulled back as
the market looked like it was turning over. In the alert services I
edited, I probably have made fewer trades than in other years. As I
write this article on Tuesday, June 23rd, I checked the Trade Tables to
see what my percentage of winners has been for trades closed in 2009. I
was pleasantly surprised to see that the overall percentage of winners
in all the services I edit combined (Option Trader, Trend Trader, and
$10 Trader) was 82.8%. Broken down, $10 Trader achieved a winning
percentage of closed trades of 86%, Trend Trader 83%, and Option Trader
75%. Those statistics were particularly interesting because both Trend
Trader and $10 Trader are essentially designed as bullish services in
which I am illustrating situations where I open a position by buying a
stock and closing the position by selling. Option Trader uses a variety
of strategies designed to attempt to profit on bearish and neutral
trades as well as bullish trades.
In the last six months, I was also very fortunate to have my new
book, "Smart Investors Money Machine" , published and my new DVD "Trading for Keeps" released. I discussed the book in some detail in the article
last week. I am really pleased by the DVD that was produced by
traderslibrary.com and includes subjects like trend line use, principles
of disciplined trading, how to let profits run, the use of collars and
protective puts, and the effective use of stop losses. All of those are
subjects with which I have dealt in many private coaching sessions as
well as in my own trading.
One of the sad things I have noted over the past 6 months is the
number of folks who have contacted me regarding coaching sessions who
have lost very significant amounts of money in the most recent crash and
who are looking for ways to stop the bleeding. In past articles, I have
written about concepts that I consider to be critical to successful
trading. They include things like money management, establishing exit
strategies before entering positions, recognizing reward to risk
potential, educating themselves about trading, and having a trading plan
in place. Most of those who called about coaching because they had
suffered severe losses were unaware of those concepts or failed to put
them into practice. Whether they signed on for coaching or not, I
encouraged the callers to learn and apply those concepts. In trading and
investing ready, fire, aim is definitely not the way to go.
No one, including me, knows what the next six months will bring in
the markets. As is often said, we can only trade the right hand side of
the chart, but to do so successfully, we must prepare ourselves and we
must continue our trading education. As all too many learned in the
disastrous market fall from October 2007 until the March low this year,
buy and ignore is simply a dangerous strategy. I wish you all good
trading and hasten to add that the "luckiest" traders are generally
those who work the hardest at learning the craft.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Success Trading Group -- by the Success Trading Group Team
Our Success Trading service delivers quality trading ideas for the elite investor that has the financial wherewithal and market nimbleness to profit on small moves in a stock's price. Become a member and you will be provided with email and/or PDA alerts intended to provide you with the opportunity to make many, many profitable trades.
Here is a play from the Success Trading Group:
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)
Our Success Trading Group members scored another winning trade this week when we closed out a position in Procter & Gamble Company (Ticker:PG) in a quick two-day trade. We have several stocks on our radar and are looking forward to trading next week.
Have a great weekend and we'll trade next week.
Success Trading Group Team
Trade Quality
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Over 320 winning trades and only 9 losses!
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Option Trader -- by Bill Kraft
Our Option Trading Service is for conservative traders that understand leverage principles and enjoy the challenge of options trading. We focus on powerful option trading strategies that place volatility and momentum in your favor. And we pride ourselves on always minimizing our losses!
The Option Trader service utilizes standard trading in Puts and Calls as well as strategies using Leaps, Straddles, Credit Spreads, Calendar Spreads, and Naked Puts. But no matter how sophisticated a strategy may be, we ALWAYS know our downside potential on every trade.
Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (YGE)
YGE has been moving relatively steadily in an uptrend. As of
Friday, the July $12.50 puts were trading in the 70 to 80 cent range.
Consideration might be given to a naked put sale as the extended trend
line might suggest that the stock price could stay above the $12.50 mark
through July expiration.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Try our Option Trader Real-Time Alert Service
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Trend Trader -- by Bill Kraft
Trend trading as we try to practice it is a form of momentum trading. We prefer to try to capture profit out of the middle of the trend rather than try to catch reversal at bottoms and tops.
Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:
Broadcom Corp. (BRCM)
Though the stock dipped Friday, it has been trending up
since March and halted Friday in the area of the double top formed by
the highs in April and May. That old resistance level may be worth
watching to see if BRCM can get a bounce from here. If it can, there
appears to be a target in the $27.50 range.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Try our Trend Trader Real-Time Alert Service
and Get $50 off our Normal Website Rate!
$10 Trader -- by Bill Kraft
We really enjoy trading stocks that are $10 and under. Often they provide the chance to enjoy high percentage gains and, of course, at worst, the risk is limited to what we paid for the stock.
Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:
NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
This one is coming off a level of support and experienced a
big percentage move on well above average volume on Friday. That kind of
action suggests the stock is worth watching for a possible bullish entry.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Try our Under $10 Trader Real-Time Alert Service!
Dividend Investor -- by the Dividend Investor Team
Our Dividend Investor service focuses solely on the "best of the best" dividend paying stocks. We attempt to buy these stocks for their powerful dividend producing income; and we will also buy these with a purpose to make capital gains as the stock increases in value. Our Dividend Investor service is a perfect fit for an IRA account.
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