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Time To Set The Record Straight
Archived Issue

Weekend Newsletter
March 15, 2008

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      Setting the Record Straight


            
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  • Setting the Record Straight -- By: Bill Kraft
    Copyright 2008, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
    Bill Kraft
    Bill Kraft
    Editor

    There is no question in my mind that people who are serious about their trading need to have accurate information. Without it, it is even harder, if not impossible, to succeed in an already difficult business. I wrote "Trade Your Way to Wealth" to try to help disseminate what I believe to be important considerations every potential trader and investor should take into account in their efforts to become successful or more successful. In the book, I included methodology and strategies that I have learned and used successfully over the years to try to help others avoid re-inventing the wheel.

    Last week, for the first time, an unfavorable review of my book, "Trade Your Way to Wealth" , appeared on Amazon.com. It was written, I suppose not surprisingly, by someone who wrote anonymously, unwilling to reveal their own identity. The critic claimed to have been trading for 10 years, but failed to reveal whether successfully or not. I can guess. In any event, under a heading, "The Bad," Sir Anonymous wrote: "The book shows a few options trading strategies such as collar (as risk free to low risk free), iron condor, spreads, etc." Sir Anonymous found those strategies to be "very basic or introduced for novice traders." In fact, the book, along with setting out how to create a business plan and manage money specifically discusses 15 separate stock and options strategies in depth and identifies the risk, capital requirements, relative lengths of time each generally requires, the level of monitoring required by the trader/investor and the market direction to which each applies. The strategies set out are: buying stock, writing covered calls, selling stock short, protective puts on long stock, selling naked puts, protective calls on short stock, buying calls, buying puts, bullish call spreads, bearish call spreads, bullish put spreads, bearish put spreads, iron condors, collars, straddles and strangles. In addition, there are discussions about trading REITS and generating regular tax free monthly income on vehicles like closed end funds.

    Sir Anonymous says that one may not be able to make millions using collars. Of course that is true. Whether a trader makes millions or not depends on many factors including knowledge, risk awareness, capital devoted to trading, ability to cut losses and so on and so on. I should note that reportedly, the very wealthy use collars as a device to significantly reduce and even eliminate risk in trades while still leaving quite an attractive upside in many situations. I certainly use them myself. Our critic also says it is difficult to find a collar where you can get a credit on the option legs at entry. I didn't say it was easy. Successful trading does require work. I find many such collars during the course of a year. When I was asked to speak at Traders Expo in New York last month, for example, I wanted to illustrate a trade with an assured profit (and no risk). The day before my talk, I did a little searching and found a good one within 10 minutes.

    I'll conclude my harangue by noting my belief in the critical importance of formulating a business plan for yourself. Sir Anonymous criticizes "Trade Your Way to Wealth" for failing to set out my own personal business plan. In fact, I did not set out my personal plan for a couple of reasons. First, a good business plan must be constructed for the individual as I describe in the book. My goals, capital, risk tolerance, choice of strategy, time spent studying and trading, knowledge level, and experience are unique and undoubtedly different from that of each reader. What I have done in "Trade Your Way to Wealth" is to set out a road map for you to create the plan that fits you, not me. Second, as I note in the book, the traders business plan is a living document, a work in progress. It can and should change as you gain more knowledge, accumulate more capital or suffer losses in your trading. You may practice new strategies and add them to your trading arsenal. Copying someone else's plan when it does not fit your knowledge, experience, goals, risk tolerance, etc. would be absolutely foolhardy.

    I have been fortunate and successful in my own trading. I sincerely believe in making things as simple as possible and I believe we all are better off if we study and completely understand the critical basics of trading. Some of those basics, in my opinion, are the understanding that successful trading isn't easy and we tend to make it even harder than necessary, it does take work, it will not be handed to us on a silver platter and there is no holy grail of trading. In my teaching and coaching, I have found that two of the most common faults of unsuccessful traders are a failure to understand the real risk in the trade and a propensity to try to add complexity to their trading. In "Trade Your Way to Wealth" , I have tried to address those failings in an effort to help readers become better traders and investors within the framework of their own lives and personalities.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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    Here is a play from the Success Trading Group:

    Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED)
    Our Success Trading Group members scored another winning trade this week. We traded in and out of Consolidated Edison (Ticker: ED) in less than a week. We like ED at its current price for new positions as well.

    Have a great weekend and we'll trade next week.
    Success Trading Group Team


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    The Option Trader service utilizes standard trading in Puts and Calls as well as strategies using Leaps, Straddles, Credit Spreads, Calendar Spreads, and Naked Puts. But no matter how sophisticated a strategy may be, we ALWAYS know our downside potential on every trade.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    Symantec Corporation (SYMC)
    SYMC has one level of support and was down Friday on high volume. It looks like it may have set up as a candidate for a straight directional play on a break below $16.30 as it may close the January gap; I'll be considering some 6 month out (or so) in the money puts in an effort to find a delta high enough to make the play worthwhile. A shorter term bearish call spread might do the job as well.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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  • Trend Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    Trend trading as we try to practice it is a form of momentum trading. We prefer to try to capture profit out of the middle of the trend rather than try to catch reversal at bottoms and tops.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    Paccar Inc. (PCAR)
    In these market conditions, there are not an abundance of stand-out bullish candidates. I have used vehicles like SDS and QID to profit in downward moves. One stock that is showing a little strength is PCAR which has come off a double bottom in the vicinity of $42. It made a strong move Friday, but could not yet stay above the more than month long resistance at $46. I am watching PCAR to see how it handles that level and it could be a buy with a chance for a $10 move if it holds above $46.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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  • $10 Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    We really enjoy trading stocks that are $10 and under. Often they provide the chance to enjoy high percentage gains and, of course, at worst, the risk is limited to what we paid for the stock.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    Denison Mines Corp. (DNN)
    Denison Mines looks as though it may be setting up for an entry if it can break above the area of the double top formed in December and January. It isn't there yet and may go down a little before it turns back up. A move through the February intra-day high would be quite bullish in my view.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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    Our Dividend Investor service focuses solely on the "best of the best" dividend paying stocks. We attempt to buy these stocks for their powerful dividend producing income; and we will also buy these with a purpose to make capital gains as the stock increases in value. Our Dividend Investor service is a perfect fit for an IRA account.

    Here is a play from the Dividend Investor Team:

    US Bancorp (USB)
    Our Dividend Investors purchased US Bancorp last August. We sold it this week for a 12% gain. We will be looking to buy USB in the future below $30 per share.

    Have a great weekend and we'll trade next week.
    Dividend Investor Team

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